Survivor Samoa – Dave Out (7-1) & Monica Out (5-2)
Posted in Authors, Dan's Blog, Survivor, Survivor 19 USA on December 11th, 2009 by DanSurvivor ended up voting two people out last night, spliting the episode into two immunity challenges, and two tribal councils where two people were voted off. During this episode we were promised that Russell would pull “his boldest move ever” at Tribal Council. More explained as we go along. So, it’s night 30, and we see that Shambo is truely shocked that John was voted off, instead of Dave, what her “vision” said last episode. Russell lies, and tells Shambo it was John who was trying to target Shambo. Umm, if Shambo was John’s target, than how can Russell who thinks he’s a genius explain John voting for Mick and not Shambo? Anyways, it’s Day thirty one and we see Jaison, Monica, and Brett talking about Russell posibly being a jury threat, due to the way he’s played the game. OK, we see that these other people are aware of the puppet master, but aren’t doing anything yet. Then, Jaison tells Monica and Brett that Russell is actually a self mde millionaire, making an atempt to shake things up.
It’s an immunity challenge, and during the immunity challenge, it was simply a traditional game of bowling. Each Survivor had to face someone head to head in a two shot round. If they knock over more pins, they advance. The final round was between Shambo and Jaison. After Shambo missed both of her two shots, Jaison managed to hit two pins, and it was enough for Jiason to take another immunity win. At Camp, Shambo is still dead set on taking Dave out, continuing to play the game personal and delusionally. However, Russell begins scheming, again, as usual, and says that Davehas a lower shot of winning than Shambo, and wants to consider taking Shambo out. So, at tribal council, Dave and Shambo clearly voted for each other, but all the others voted for Dave, and Dave was the eleventh person voted off, and Shambo’s vision was delayed, but true.
It’s the next visible day, and Russell begins telling everyone and taking about Brett being the next biggest threat. Considering that Brett has all his Galu tribe members and has no negative vibes from those Galu jurors, him as a jury threat is clearly logic to say. So, it was time for the next immunity challenge, in which they had to swim out and receive bags, then launch them on a calipult into a basket. It was clearly a close race between Brett and Mick, and it was Brett who won, foiling the plans of Russell, as he was left to not vote for Brett. Back at Camp, Monica confronts Rusell about being a self made millionaire. Great job Russell, you tell one person something, and now you know everyone knows it. You have nobody to blame but yourself, congratulations. Russell gets upset that he made a mistake telling these people his secret, and storms around camp, upset and outraged, out to find out who told Monica this. The fingers are pointed to Jaison, who says Monica is stirring up stuff because she’s trying to stick around.
At Tribal council, Monica begins telling Russell like it is, and Russell pulls out his idol. Not to play it, but to just simply wear it, and let everyone knows he has it. Sure, that’s a “bold move”, I mean, we all saw Yul of season thirteen show everyone the idol. Not at tribal council, but at an auction, but still, Russell was just being like what Monica said at Tribal Council, “humble”. At tribal council’s vote, it was Russell who took two votes (From Monica, Brett) and Monica who took five votes, and she was voted off. Clearly she wasn’t the one who told everyone Russell was a millionaire, Jiason did that trick, and Russell was just dumb to believe Jaison. I truly feel Jaison will be the only one bold enough to take Russell down, if Russell is taken down. Mick and Natalie seem too scared to take him down now, and Brett has no numbers, and Shambo won’t turn on Russell.
Since this is the near end of the game, with just two episodes left, I want to give a complete analysis of what the jurors could do, and where I believe the current final six stand with the jury:
The present Jurors and their potential views:
Erik-Could vote for either Shambo or Brett, who were most loyal to him, or Russell, as he isn’t likely to be an extremely bitter juror. I don’t see him voting for Mick, Jaison, or Natalie, unless he has to. If anyone becomes a swing vote in the jury, it’s him, hands down.
Kelly-I think she’s pulling for Brett, and obviously not Russell or Shambo. Will possibly vote for either Jiason, Natalie, or Mick next, if Brett is out.
Laura-Will not vote for Russell or Shambo, and is clearly pulling for Brett all the way. Will vote for Natalie, Jaison, or Mick is one of them is there.
John-Is likely pulling for Shambo, then Brett. I don’t see him voting for Russell, and could vote for Mick, Natalie, Jaison, if Bret and Shambo are absent from the final three.
Dave-Will not vote for Shambo or Russell, and will pull for Brett. Will only vote for Natalie, Mick, or Jaison if it’s the only option.
Monica-Will not vote for Shambo or Russell, and is pulling for Brett. Will only vote for Natalie, Mick, or Jaison is necessary.
The final six, and their chances of winning is a specific order:
Brett- He will get a vote from Kelly, Laura, Dave, and Monica hands down. Erik may vote for him, depending on what the circumstance is, and who’s there, and how well the finalists present themselves. He could get John’s vote, if Shambo is absent from the final three. He will only get to the final three by two shots: winning the next three immunities, which could happen, I wouldn’t be surprised if that happened, or the Foa-Foa members use him as a pawn to turn on each other, and he slides to the final three, or perhaps a combo of the two scenarios. He would be considered in my books, a Jenna Morasca type winner. Used as a pawn, could potentially win immunity in order to stick around, and recieve a landslide amount of votes from the jury.
Jaison- He isn’t in Russell’s final three plans, so what he needs to do is get him, Mick, and Natalie to the final three, and execute that plan. I only see him winning if he is somehow gets bitter juror votes. If Brett, say, is the next to go, he’ll likely, and this was in the previews, take Shambo/Russell to the final three, and could get votes, considering some jurors will never vote for Shambo or Russell (Laura, Kelly, Dave, & Monica). Or Jaison could be thinking Russell/Shambo are more dangerous, and execute a plan to boot them 5th & 4th, and could still win. I sense Jaison is the potential swing vote at final five, if Brett’s next.
Natalie- If Russell has his current way, and we see him, Shambo, and Natalie in the final three, I can see Natalie winning this way and this way pretty much only. Laura, Kelly, Dave, and Monica were betrayed when Shambo turned on Galu, and clearly don’t like Russell, and have no interest in seeing Russell win. If Russell has his final three plans go into action, Natalie could be the benefit from this.
Mick- He will only get to the final three by winning immunities, and could only beat out Russell and Shambo, if he’s in the final three with them. I can tell he’s Russell’s alternate target is Brett gets immunity, or perhaps, he gets cut loose for being caught targeting Russell. He’s not in Russell’s final three plans, and would easily lose to Jaison or Natalie, if he went to the final three with them. I don’t see a Mick/Shambo/Russell combo, right now.
Shambo- Will get a vote from Erik and John, and probably just those two. I don’t see any other vote for her, right now. Two won’t be enough votes for her, and Monica, Kelly, Laura, and Dave could be last on their lists for her to win.
Russell- I can only see him recieving a vote from Erik, and if Brett isn’t blindsided, maybe Brett. I clearly see that if he betrayed Mick and Jaison, they’ll be way to bitter.
Here are what I feel are the most Likely Final three outcomes and how things could turn out:
Russell/Natalie/Shambo – If Russell has his final three plans executed epically, this should be the outcome I predict. Shambo would get 2 votes (Erik, John), Natalie has an easy four votes (Kelly, Laura, Dave, Monica). It wouldn’t matter what Brett, Jaison, or Mick did, but they’d porbably vote for Natalie anyways. Natalie could win with at least a 2-3-4 vote, or a 2-7-0 vote. Mick and Jaison will hold a huge grudge if Russell turns on them, I can easily see that.
Brett/Any 2 – If Brett gets to the final two, withany of the other two of the other five, simply by winning the last three immunities, he’s already got five votes, four of them already set in stone, with Erik who could go either way. He’s got Kelly, Laura, Dave, Monica, and could get Erik’s vote to call it a deal.
Russell/Shambo/Jaison – In the event Natalie became a loose cannon, and Russell had to let her go, this is potentially Russell’s next dream final three. In this event, I can see the same four Anti-Shambo/Anti-Russell four (Kelly, Laura, Dave, Monica) voting for Jaison. Mick and Natalie would be just as bitter that Russell didn’t take them to the end, and Brett would likely follow with this, too. I see Shambo getting Erik/John to vote for her, dead set in stone. If this combo occurs, it’ll likely end in a 2-7-0 vote, Jaison’s favour.
Jaison/Natalie/Mick – If Foa-Foa and Shambo take out the last target, Brett, and these guys go to the finale, I see Jaison will easily try to weasel himself as a swing vote, and make the decision to take Natalie/Mick or Russell/Shambo to the final three. If he takes Natalie and Mick there (and I think it’s less likely), I see the jurors being less present jurors actually voting for the better player, if Jaison executes this final three, he will get the votes from the present jury plus Brett’s vote, simply only losing a vote from Russell/Shambo, or maybe Russell could admit defeat and vote for Jaison. If this final three occures, I can expect to see Jaison winning with at least seven votes (first six jurors, Brett), With Russell/Shambo going either of the three ways.